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    Home | Soccer | What the Stats Don’t Tell You: Sundowns had 23 shots, but the number that matters is eight
    Soccer

    What the Stats Don’t Tell You: Sundowns had 23 shots, but the number that matters is eight

    Lehlohonolo ScheepersBy Lehlohonolo Scheepers4 November 20267 Mins Read
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    Analysis graphic contrasting Sundowns' 23 shots and one goal against Golden Arrows with eight changes from Saturday's starting eleven.
    Sundowns beat Golden Arrows 1-0 despite making eight changes from Saturday's starting side. Their 23 shots tell only part of the story.
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    Table of Contents

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    • The number: 23 shots, seven on target, one goal
    • What it seems to say: another laboured cup night
    • Sundowns squad depth: Cardoso has built a cup team
    • Why the gap exists
    • What it means next for Sundowns
    • Frequently asked questions

    Twenty-three shots, one goal. Read the numbers from Miguel Cardoso’s side at Loftus on Tuesday night and Sundowns look like a side that spent the evening knocking on a locked door. They did. But the most revealing figure from the knockout cup quarter-final is not on the stat sheet, and it goes to the heart of Sundowns squad depth. Cardoso made eight changes to the team that started on Saturday, and still went through.

    That is the gap this column lives in. The numbers say wasteful. The team sheet says something far more worrying for everyone chasing the champions.

    The number: 23 shots, seven on target, one goal

    The PSL’s match centre has Sundowns on 23 shots to Golden Arrows’ 11, with seven on target against two, and nine corners to two. The only goal came on 68 minutes, Iqraam Rayners heading in Antonio van Wyk’s delivery from the left. Our report from the night at Loftus has the result and how it unfolded. Here, we want to know what the numbers leave out.

    The tie in numbersSundownsGolden Arrows
    Shots2311
    Shots on target72
    Corners92
    Fouls119
    Yellow cards12

    Source: PSL match centre. The PSL published no possession figure for this tie, so we have not used one.

    Shots and corners are enough to show who spent the night in the dangerous areas. It was not close.

    What it seems to say: another laboured cup night

    On its own, one goal from 23 attempts reads like a finishing problem. Six of the seven efforts on target did not go in, and our report details how Dumisani Msibi in the Arrows goal kept Sundowns out for long spells.

    It also looks like a pattern. A week earlier, in the last 16, Sundowns beat Marumo Gallants by the same 1-0 at the same ground, and TimesLIVE called it a laboured win. The PSL’s numbers from that night are stranger still: Gallants had 16 shots to Sundowns’ eight, and six on target to one. Sundowns won with one effort on target against Gallants.

    Read that way, the cup run so far is two narrow wins and not much swagger. A club that has already lifted the MTN8 this season, and expects to win at home, scraping through. That is the story the stat sheet tells. It is not the whole story.

    Sundowns squad depth: Cardoso has built a cup team

    Put Saturday’s team next to Tuesday’s and the picture changes. Against Durban City in Rustenburg, Sundowns won 4-1 and returned to first place. Only three players who started that game started again three days later: Ricardo Goss in goal, Malibongwe Khoza and Bathusi Aubaas. Everyone else was new.

    Now put Tuesday’s team next to the one that beat Gallants. Ten of the eleven are the same. The only change was Aubaas in for Thabo Cele. Goss, Mothobi Mvala, Sphelele Mkhulise, Van Wyk, Arthur Sales and Rayners all started both cup ties, according to the PSL’s line-ups. TimesLIVE described several of them as fringe players getting rare starts.

    That is not rotation in the usual sense, a few tired legs swapped out. It is a second side, picked twice, that has now won two knockout ties without conceding. Most clubs in this league would be happy to have one team that can do that.

    And the first-choice players were not wasted on the bench. Thabang Matuludi, scorer of both headed goals in Rustenburg, started among the substitutes, alongside Cassius Mailula, Marcelo Allende and Aubrey Modiba. All four came on: Mailula and Allende on 66 minutes, Matuludi on 67, Modiba on 77. By the time Rayners scored, three of them were on the pitch.

    Why the gap exists

    Shots measure territory, not understanding. A side with eight changes can still win the ball high and pile into the box, which is exactly what 23 shots and nine corners describe. What it does not have is the timing of players who start together every week. Our reading: the volume came from Sundowns’ quality, and the lack of goals partly from unfamiliar combinations. The stat sheet cannot show the second half of that sentence.

    The goal came from the cup side itself. It would be easy to credit the substitutes, given the timing. The numbers do not support that. Rayners and Van Wyk both started, and Rayners also set up the only goal against Gallants, according to the PSL. He has had a hand in both of Sundowns’ goals in this cup run. Whatever Cardoso’s bench added, the decisive moment belonged to the players he trusted from kick-off.

    Clean sheets hide behind the scorelines. Add the two cup ties together and Sundowns have 31 shots, eight on target and two goals. Their opponents have 27 shots, eight on target and none. On efforts on target, the two nights are level. On the scoreboard, Sundowns are 2-0 up across the round of 16 and quarter-final. Goss kept goal in both. That is depth too, and it rarely gets a headline.

    The real number is eight. Eight changes from Saturday, and the side still controlled the game in the areas that matter. A stat sheet records what happened on the night. It cannot record that the eleven who did it were mostly not the eleven who play on Saturdays.

    What it means next for Sundowns

    The reason for all of this arrives on Sunday. Sundowns host USM Alger in the CAF Super Cup at Loftus on Sunday 8 November, CAF confirms, with kick-off at 15:00 according to TimesLIVE. The champions of Africa against the Confederation Cup winners, five days after the quarter-final.

    Cardoso now has a decision, and Tuesday made it harder in a good way. Matuludi, Allende, Modiba and Mailula were all used off the bench, so none of them had to play a full match on Tuesday. The cup side, meanwhile, gave him a winning performance from Rayners and Van Wyk. If he goes back to Saturday’s XI, he does so with players who were spared 90 minutes in midweek. If he keeps faith with a scorer in form, he has evidence for that too.

    The league does not wait either. The PSL’s log has the champions on 26 points after 10 games, with Orlando Pirates one point back after nine. That match in hand matters, and the champions cannot afford a squad that only works in one competition.

    That is why Tuesday mattered beyond a semi-final place. Every rival watching Mamelodi Sundowns this season will have looked at the 23 shots and seen a side struggling to score. The better scouts will have looked at the team sheet. Eight changes. Still through. Still no goals conceded in the competition.

    Twenty-three shots is the number everyone quotes. Eight is the one that should keep the rest of the league awake.

    Frequently asked questions

    Who scored for Sundowns against Golden Arrows?

    Iqraam Rayners scored the only goal on 68 minutes, from Antonio van Wyk’s delivery, according to the PSL’s match centre. Sundowns won 1-0 at Loftus Versfeld on Tuesday 3 November 2026 and are the first club into the knockout cup semi-finals.

    How many changes did Sundowns make against Golden Arrows?

    Eight, compared with the side that beat Durban City 4-1 on Saturday 31 October. Only Ricardo Goss, Malibongwe Khoza and Bathusi Aubaas started both games. Cassius Mailula, Aubrey Modiba, Marcelo Allende and Thabang Matuludi started as substitutes, and every one of them got on.

    What were the stats in Sundowns v Golden Arrows?

    The PSL’s match centre has Sundowns on 23 shots to 11, seven on target to two, and nine corners to two. The PSL did not publish a possession figure for the tie.

    When do Sundowns play USM Alger in the CAF Super Cup?

    On Sunday 8 November 2026 at Loftus in Pretoria, as CAF has confirmed. TimesLIVE reports a 15:00 kick-off. It is a meeting of the 2025-26 CAF Champions League winners and the Confederation Cup winners.

    Are Sundowns top of the league?

    Yes. Sundowns have 26 points after 10 games on the PSL’s log, one more than Orlando Pirates, who have played a game fewer. AmaZulu are third with 22.

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    Golden Arrows Iqraam Rayners Mamelodi Sundowns Miguel Cardoso
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